The much anticipated June 12 meeting in Singapore between the two ‘nuclear bullies’, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un may not happen as scheduled following North Korea’s threat to call it off over perceived ‘provocative’ move by the United States of America and South Korea, further complicated by US National Security Adviser, John Bolton’s “Libya Model” remark.
The yearly Max Thunder drill is a joint U.S.–South Korean military exercise which began in 2009 and it is the largest military flying exercise in the Korean peninsula. It is said that the training exercise is defensive and only wishes to strengthen the South Korean and US “operability”, but North Korea has never found it funny, as, in April 2017, it responded with the largest ever live fire exercise.
This year, Max Thunder will involve 100 warplanes including 8 F-22 fighters, F-15K and F-16K Jets.
The President of South Korea, Moon Jae-in’s role of ‘middle man’ in the meeting between US President Trump and North Korea’s Kim, while also carrying out joint military drills with the US is perceived by the North as “shameless” and “impudent”.
According to North Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) “This exercise targeting us, which is being carried out across South Korea, is a flagrant challenge to the Panmunjom Declaration and an intentional military provocation running counter to the positive political development on the Korean Peninsula.
“The [US] will also have to undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities”.
US State Department Spokeswoman, Heather Nauert warned News reporters that it is too early to draw a conclusion as the News just came out and the US is yet to hear from North and South Koreas.
“We have not heard anything from that Government or the Government of South Korea to indicate that we would not continue conducting these exercises or that we would not continue planning for our meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un next month”.
Meanwhile, the White House Press Secretary, Sarah Sanders acknowledged awareness of the News report, saying “The United States will look at what North Korea has said independently, and continue to coordinate closely with our allies”.
After pressure, the US agreed to exclude B-52 planes, which could carry nuclear weapon, from the deal. Pyongyang’s concern that any such drill will be a practice towards a future invasion of North Korea and the US subsequent downsizing of the drill comes with some reason as the US had flown the B-52 planes near the peninsula in response to North Korean’s nuclear test in the past.
Bolton and the Libya Model
While responding to question on the requirement for Kim to disarm, the National Security Adviser to Trump, John Bolton, on CBS ‘Face the Nation’, said the “Libya model of 2003, 2004” is being considered.
“I think that’s right. I think we’re looking at the Libya model of 2003, 2004. We’re also looking at what North Korea itself has committed to previously and most importantly I think going back over a quarter of a century to the 1992 joint North-South denuclearization agreement where North Korea committed to give up nuclear weapons and committed to give up uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. Now we’ve got other issues to discuss as well; their ballistic missile programs, their biological and chemical weapons programs, their keeping of American hostages, the abduction of innocent Japanese and South Korean citizens over the years. So there’s a lot to talk about”.
This statement did not go down well with North Korea because 8 years after Former Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi abandoned his weapons development, he was overthrown and killed.
Both Countries share differing ideas of denuclearization; the US is looking at irreversible denuclearization and compensation comes after North Korea gives up all its nuclear weapons, which is not what North Korea has in mind.
This is affirmed by North Korea’s first Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kim Kye-gwan statement that “If the US is trying to drive us into a corner to force our unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such dialogue and cannot but reconsider our proceeding to the … summit“.
He also expressed dissatisfaction with Bolton’s ‘Libya model’ of nuclear disarmament with “complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement”, because ironically, Libya is the reason North Korea holds firmly to its nuclear weapons.
“The world knows too well that our Country is neither Libya nor Iraq, which met miserable fates”.
Trump’s defence of the Libya model, worse
While Bolton may be referring to the agreement the Libyan Government had with the US in 2003, Trump misunderstood it to mean the 2011 military intervention, saying “If you look at that model with Qaddafi, that was a total decimation”.
“When John Bolton made that statement, he was talking about if we’re going to be having a problem because we cannot let that Country have nukes. We just can’t do it”.
A History of Betrayal
On December 2003, Muammar Gaddafi, the Leader of Libya, announced his intentions to dismantle the Country’s Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) programs, destroy its stock of chemical, biological as well as nuclear weapons, giving information of its black market sellers to the US government which led to a lot of clampdown on culprits, a bid for leniency in US sanctions.
“Fed up with pan-Arabism, he turned to Africa, only to find little support from old allies there. Removing the sanctions and their accompanying stigma became his priority”, wrote Foreign policy Analyst, Martin Indyk.
“And while North Korea has long been able to rely on China, the United States was the dominant power in the Middle East in the early 2000s — leaving Gaddafi few choices”.
“The only way out was to seek rapprochement with Washington”
George W. Bush announcing Libya’s disarmament said; “In word and action, we have clarified the choices left to potential adversaries”.
Gaddafi was widely criticized in the Arab region, as his decision was perceived as giving Israel a more strategic edge over the region (his son, Saif said disarmament of Isreal was one of the reasons Gaddafi gave up his WMD) and legitimizing US power in the Arab affairs.
There were speculations that the toppling in Iraq may have also influenced Gaddafi’s decision, which analysts assert the George W. Bush administration used to give legitimacy to the US Iraqi invasion.
According to The Washington Post, “When offering to give up the program in exchange for sanctions relief wasn’t sufficient, the Libyan leader looked for ways to settle his dispute with Britain over the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988 — a U.S. condition for any further talks. Overall, 270 people died in the attack, for which Gaddafi claimed responsibility in 2003, even though he maintained that he had not ordered the bombing. To settle the conflict with Britain, Libya agreed to pay at least $5 million to the families of each of the 270 victims.
This gave way to the end of Libya’s WMD program and a verification process by international Inspectors, the kind of measures being proposed by Bolton.
Gaddafi paid a five-day visit to France four years after giving up his weapons programs.
While defending his visit, the then President of France said; “If we don’t welcome Countries that are starting to take the path of respectability, what can we say to those that leave that path?”
Unfortunately, the Arab Spring began in 2011 and Libya fell, Gaddafi’s Government toppled, with assistance from his so-called allies, the US and France.
