The United States of America and Iran have been issuing a lot of threats concerning the nuclear deal struck between both Countries in 2015. In the heat of things, Iran has stated it would “be ready to go back to the previous situation” if the US pulled out of the deal as it has promised.
The Iran Nuclear Deal was a treaty signed by Iran and Russia, France, China, Britain, and Germany and led by America (P5+1). It was intended to halt the manufacturing of components for nuclear weapons which include plutonium and uranium in Iran.
In turn, the United States and United Nations would lift the many sanctions against Iran, including access to international market, a ban believed to have crippled Iranian economic and development growth. According to former President Barack Obama who spear-headed the agreement,
“Every pathway to a nuclear weapon is cut off. This deal is not built on trust. It is built on verification.”
The deal also includes certification of Iran’s compliance which was sent to Congress every 90 days and approved by the President.
How trouble started
During his campaign in 2016, Donald Trump had threatened to withdraw from the deal if it’s not re-negotiated, saying it weakens American security and is one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.
In October 2017, Trump decertified the deal and threatened to pull out soon if new measures were not put in place.
One of Trump’s arguments was that the deal did not include that Iran should permanently stop producing nuclear weapons; neither does it state that it should place restrictions on missile testing. However, Iran said the missiles it has tested are not designed to carry nuclear warheads and insists its nuclear programme is a peaceful one for energy purposes.
In January 2018, Trump’s announcement, that he will pull out of the deal by May, generated reactions and controversies from even the Countries that co-signed the deal.
“Despite my strong inclination, I have not yet withdrawn the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. Instead, I have outlined two possible paths forward; either fix the deal’s disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw.
“This is a last chance. In the absence of such an agreement, the United States will not again waive sanctions in order to stay in the Iran nuclear deal. And if at any time I judge that such an agreement is not within reach, I will withdraw from the deal immediately.” Trump said.
Iran’s reaction
According to Iranian Parliament’s Speaker, Ali Larijani, the US would regret its actions if it pulled away, as his Country had already detailed its necessary lines of action.
“We have a plan. We’ve recently approved in Parliament what we should do given the Americans undertake certain steps.
“We will take steps so that the Americans will regret it.”
Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani also said America has no right to re-negotiate a treaty that involves seven parties.
He said the Country would not accept any restrictions beyond its commitments to comply with international rules in the years ahead.
Iran also claimed some European Countries are already offering the US more concession on the deal.
Supporting the Deal
The United Nations have urged America to remain in the deal, as its withdrawal could risk war in 2025; the deadline for the treaty.
According to UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, the agreement was an “important diplomatic victory” and should be maintained.
“We should not scrap it unless we have a good alternative,” he said, adding: “We face dangerous times.”
According to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, the Country is against revising the deal and considers it very counter-productive “to try to reduce to zero years of international work carried out via talks between the six major powers and Iran”.
When French President, Emmanuel Macron met with Trump, he re-echoed Lavrov’s stance, saying pulling out of the deal could jeopardise the situation, but seem to suggest some fixing when he said
“We’ve had very frank discussions, just the two of us. You consider it a bad deal and for a number of months I have been saying that it is not a sufficient deal….we wish to work on a new deal on Iran.”
Angela Merkel, German chancellor, also said in defence of the deal that an imperfect deal is better than no deal.
“The issue on which we disagree is how we can best contain this. We believe it’s better to have this agreement, even if it is not perfect, than to have no agreement.
“We will continue to discuss this, but Germany will watch very closely to ensure that this agreement will be fulfilled.”
Opposing the Deal
One of US’s closest ally, Israel has never hidden its detest for the deal.
After the agreement in 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the deal would threaten the existence of his Country.
“The proposed agreement would constitute a real danger to the region and the world.”
Iran also has a Military base in Syria, which shares a border with Israel and the Prime Minister believes his Country is at risk if Iran does not follow the treaty.
Israel itself has the same Nuclear Weapons it sought to prevent Iran from having.
What happens if the US withdraws
Political analysts have posited that withdrawal of US from the deal does not have significance if it does not re-impose new sanctions.
Some also opined that impositions of sanctions would leave Iran with no choice than to opt out, even as the lifting of the sanctions has created a bilateral relationship with France and Germany.
Others also deduced that if Trump withdrew from the deal, it could change North Korea’s stance on its own nuclear weapon agenda which Trump has been calling for an end to.
A US withdrawal will also pitch it against China and Russia, two powerful countries that have expressed approval for the deal. The US will also have to contend with going over the head of its European allies. Americans will also feel the impact, as Iran had entered a deal with Boeing alone to the tune of 20 billion dollars for the upgrading of its fleets. A deal that was put on hold by the US Treasury when Trump got elected.
Iran was hoping for $100 billion in oil and gas industry investment alone.
Macron also gave his thought on what will happen should the US pull out, as he says
“That would mean opening Pandora’s box, it could mean war….I don’t believe that Donald Trump wants war.”
Motivated to Quite
Trump’s motivations to quit the deal range from the fact that it is seen as Barrack Obama’s legacy to Israel’s dislike for it and the fact that pro-Israeli donors like US GOP campaign financier and casino magnate Sheldon Adelson are vocal against the deal. Also, Trump’s National Security Adviser, John Bolton, is also known to dislike the deal and prefers a regime change in Iran.
The list of deals Trump pulled off from or dislikes openly includes the Paris Climate Accord, the Clean Power Plan, and the TransPacific Partnership, and they show a pattern.
