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How Africa may be the ‘ground’ that suffers in ‘elephant’ Gulf crisis

Hostilities continue to deepen in the Gulf region following the Qatar blockade, which many fear Africa may be dragged into considering the recent happenings in Somalia, and partisan roles played by some other African Countries.

According to the Director of the Horn of Africa project, International Crisis Group, Rashid Abdi, “There is no doubt that these rivalries are spilling over into Africa. Somalia is especially vulnerable because of its proximity to the Gulf and its long historical relationship with the region.”

“Somalia has become a chessboard in the power game between Qatar and Turkey on the one side and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and their allies on the other.

The Gulf Crisis

In June 2017, some Countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Mauritania and Egypt) severed diplomatic ties with Qatar by withdrawing ambassadors and placing a trade and travel ban, an escalation of the ongoing Cold War between the Country and Saudi Arabia.

While the Saudi-led coalition had accused Qatar of supporting terrorism, in violation to a 2014 agreement with the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Qatar has continuously refuted this claim, as it has joined the United States in the “war against terrorism”, and also has an ongoing military intervention against ISIS militant group.

Qatar’s Attorney General, Dr. Ali Bin Fetais Al-Marri said “They have asked us to give up organizing the World Cup to have the boycott against Qatar lifted”.

“I do not see any reason for the blockade other than envy. Why do the Qataris have more liberties than we have, why are they richer if Saudi Arabia is a country with more wealth? Why did Qatar get a chance to host the 2022 football World Cup?”

Somalia at crossroads with allegiance

The tensions between Somalia and Somaliland (a self-declared state since 1991 following the Somali civil war) have continued, with the latest disagreement centered on two deals connected to the UAE.

The UAE is building a huge military base at a strategic location in Berbera, which is close to Yemen where it supports the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthi fighters.

Somalia had frowned at Somaliland for signing such significant economic and military agreements with a foreign power and also at UAE for bypassing its Federal Government in striking deals with its regional states.

“Somaliland and DP World have been very arrogant and disrespectful, The company cannot legally sign an agreement without our consent. We will not allow any party to violate our sovereignty and territorial integrity”, says Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Isse Awad.

Meanwhile, the UAE Ambassador to Somaliland describes Somali’s stance on the deal as “ludicrous”, while asserting that the military base was a good thing for Somaliland.

“We have been managing our own affairs for nearly 30 years. Somalia has not contributed anything to our territory so why is it interfering now?

“It will protect our coastline. UAE troops will train our security forces. They will also use the base to launch attacks on Yemen”.

These five states have a fractious relationship with central government and with each other. Some have received military training, equipment and funding from the Emirates. DP World, a Dubai-based company, and its subsidiaries are negotiating deals to manage a string of ports in at least three of them.

DP World is taking over the port, exporting millions of live animals to the Gulf yearly.

Ethiopia is also involved in the port, with a 19% stake as Berbera is a better alternative to the congested, expensive port in Djibouti, which it is dependent on.

Africa on both sides of the divide

While Competition for influence between Gulf States continues to stretch beyond the Horn of Africa and East Africa, it had also found its way into the Sahel as well as Central and West Africa

In December 2017, Sudan granted Turkey the right to rebuild a decaying port city and construct a naval dock to maintain civilian and military vessels on its Red Sea coast.

Egypt suspects the agreement may fuel a border conflict with Sudan over the region of Halayeeb.

Sudan had earlier complained to the United Nations that a maritime demarcation agreement in 2016 by Egypt and Saudi Arabia was an infringement on what it claimed to be Sudanese waters off Halayeeb.

In January, Sudan closed its border with Eritrea because of reports that UAE-backed Egypt is sending troops to Eritrea.

Egypt expresses concerns that the mounting pressures will complicate negotiations of the massive dam being built by Ethiopia, which Egypt iterates will reduce its vital share of the Nile Rivers. However, the negotiation reached a deadlock, with Sudan seemingly on Ethiopia’s side.

Qatar, in response to Eritrea and Djibouti’s decision to downgrade relations with the Gulf state, withdrew its peacekeeping contingent of 400 troops from the Red Sea island of Doumeira.

Eritrea immediately seized a disputed island that is also claimed by Djibouti in a move that could ultimately spark an armed conflict that may draw in Ethiopia.

Conditions issued to Qatar for the blockade to be lifted;

1) Scale down diplomatic ties with Iran and close the Iranian diplomatic missions in Qatar, expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and cut off military and intelligence cooperation with Iran. Trade and commerce with Iran must comply with US and international sanctions in a manner that does not jeopardize the security of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

2) Immediately shut down the Turkish military base, which is currently under construction, and halt military cooperation with Turkey inside of Qatar.

3) Sever ties to all “terrorist, sectarian and ideological organizations,” specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIL, al-Qaeda, Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as the Nusra Front) and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare these entities as terror groups as per the list announced by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt, and concur with all future updates of this list.

4) Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organizations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, US and other countries.

5) Hand over “terrorist figures”, fugitives and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain to their countries of origin. Freeze their assets, and provide any desired information about their residency, movements, and finances.

6) Shut down Al Jazeera and its affiliate stations.

7) End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs. Stop granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws.

8) Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar.

9) Align Qatar’s military, political, social and economic policies with the other Gulf and Arab countries, as well as on economic matters, as per the 2014 agreement reached with Saudi Arabia.

10) Cease contact with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain. Hand over files detailing Qatar’s prior contact with and support for opposition groups, and submit details of their personal information and the support Qatar has provided them.

11) Shut down all news outlets funded directly and indirectly by Qatar, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al Araby Al Jadeed, Mekameleen and Middle East Eye, etc.

12) Agree to all the demands within 10 days of list being submitted to Qatar, or the list will become invalid.

13) Consent to monthly compliance audits in the first year after agreeing to the demands, followed by quarterly audits in the second year, and annual audits in the following 10 years.

Reactions to Conditions issued

Responding to condition number 2, Turkey Defence Minister, Fikri Isik said Turkey had no plans to review its military base in Qatar, and such demand for its closure would interfere with the Country’s relations with Qatar.

“The base in Qatar is both a Turkish base and one that will preserve the security of Qatar and the region.

“Re-evaluating the base agreement with Qatar is not on our agenda”.

Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra iterated that the list is “definitely going to be rejected by Qatar”.

“Qatar has said it will only look into the demands once the sanctions are lifted”, adding that Qatar had already said closing Al Jazeera was off the table.

“Specifically, this demand on compensation takes the region into unchartered territory. To ask for compensation, you have to have the Qatari government say; ‘Sorry, I’ve made mistakes’, and look into every single instance where Qataris made mistakes.

“This is unprecedented in the Arab World. What if the Qataris say the Saudis have to pay compensation for every single civilian killed or innocent life taken all over the World. This is really surreal,” Ahelbarra argued.

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