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How Dapchi Girls release breaks a number of beliefs about kidnapping

The scene of the release is one never seen before unless in movies, as armed Boko Haram terrorists drove into Dapchi in 10 Sports Utility Vehicles, to return the schoolgirls kidnapped last month, exchanging pleasantries with the villagers, even buying kola nuts from them.

According to the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Muhammad, out of the reported 110 schoolgirls kidnapped from Government Girls’ Technical College, Dapchi, Yobe State, about 105 girls and a boy have been released.

What were the odds of the girls returning alive?

The abducted, the girls spent exactly 30 days with Boko Haram and about 5 causalities were reported.

Investigative analysts assert that the first hour of abduction is most crucial, with chances of being found alive or dead diminishing by each passing hour, and security personnel hope for the worst after 72 hours of abduction.

Nigerians were pessimistic about the return of the abducted Dapchi girls; the Chibok incident is still fresh in memories hence the widespread hopelessness and panic following the abduction.

What caused the most worry was the unpredictability of the sect suspected of perpetuating the kidnapping; Abu Musab Al-Barnawi-led Islamic State West African Province (ISIS-WA), a breakout from the Shekau-led Boko Haram.

The leader of the sect is said to be the son of Boko Haram founder, Muhammad Yusuf, who was killed by security forces in 2009.

The Sect’s mode of operation is not one the security forces are accustomed to, as it is more mysterious and more combatant (security forces are unsure what it’s leader looks like), unlike the Vlogger Shekau.

Ransom or Goodwill?

Speculations that the Federal Government paid ransom for the release of the abducted girls have been denied by the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Muhammad, who insists that ‘no ransom was paid’.

Lai Muhammad and Minister of Defense, Mansur Dan-Ali, iterated that the release was made possible by some ‘backchannel negotiation’, which included a condition from the Sect that the girls will be returned to Dapchi by them.

Meanwhile, SaharaReporters disclosed that according to a source, the Federal Government in addition to paying five million Euros also released some Boko Haram prisoners in exchange for the kidnapped girls.

But one of the residents interviewed by Vanguard, Mallam Ali, quoted one of the insurgents as saying the return of the girls didn’t involve any ransom payment, as the girls were returned “without collecting a dime from government”.

Some analysts argued that a sect which hates the government will not lie for it, except of course, it was a condition for the deal.

Opposition reactions

The Main opposition in Nigeria, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), under whose administration over 200 schools girls were kidnapped from Chibok in Borno State, has accused the Nigeria Government of staging the abduction to score cheap political point and usinginnocent schoolgirls as pawns in an ignoble script that was designed to hoodwink Nigerians and orchestrate a great rescue and security prowess of a conquering general”. The exact same accusation was made against the PDP led government when the Chibok Girls abduction happened, it denied it.

  • Governor Fayose; Before release

Ekiti State Governor, a staunch critic of the Buhari-led administration, and also a member of the opposition, PDP, Ayodele Fayose, upon receiving the news of the abduction in February said: “My heart goes to those 46 students that are yet to be found and I urge the federal government as well as the Yobe State government to do all within their powers to bring the students back to their families.

After release

Fayose, while congratulating Dapchi community on the release of the girls also said “The abduction of the girls is an indictment on the FG & their release is no doubt a drama scripted by the government and its agents to swindle Nigerians.”

“This appears like an arranged abduction and an arranged release, but we thank God that the innocent girls have returned home and we condole with parents of those that died.”

  • Femi Fani Kayode (FFK); Before release

Another ardent antagonist, former Aviation Minister, FFK took to his Twitter page and wrote; When u pay millions of dollars in ransom to BH in 3 years, when u lie to the world that u have defeated them and when u get the media to supress the truth about the gains they have made why should u be surprised about Dapchi? It was bound to happen.U empowered and emboldened them!

After the release

FFK accused the President of being responsible for the Boko Haram and the ‘killer’ Fulani herdsmen.

“The truth is that the Dapchi incident is the biggest scam and money-making venture in the history of Nigerian politics and those poor girls are just pawns in a much bigger game and wider picture.

Possible implications of ransom payment to terrorists

Paying ransom to terrorists for release of prisoners is largely viewed as sponsoring terror activities, as terrorists need funds to continue their terror game.

A study by Patrick T. Brandt, Justin George, and Todd Sandler, estimates that;

  • Terrorist negotiation successes encourage 64 to 87% more kidnappings for 2001–2013.
  • Casualties suffered by terrorists during kidnappings have little to no deterrence.
  • Similar findings hold for 1978–2013 and 1978–2000 for transnational kidnappings.
  • Negotiation successes encourage 26% to 57% more kidnappings for 1978–2013.

Countries like the United States of America and the United Kingdom, on the basis of this, say they do not negotiate nor pay ransom for the release of prisoners. While the UK will not prosecute any firm or individuals who do, the USA Department of Justice labels this an act of funding terrorism and prosecutes the parties involved. It is however alleged that these are public positions and the US indeed negotiates with those it calls terrorist backdoor. With the coming of President Donald Trump and his readiness to talk with the North Korean leader his Nation demonizes as terrorising others, this backdoor is gradually shifting to the front.

Other world powers like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, pay ransom to terror groups in exchange for its citizens.

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